After a grueling 2009, people around the world are looking to 2010 with hope, but hope seems to remain elusive. Though officially most of the world’s economies have begun to grow again, there is still a lot of economic pain in the foreseeable future.
The good news is that the US stock market is back up about 50%, though still 25% off its highs in 2007. The US stock market usually predicts how the US economy will fare 6-12 months in the future, so if this is any indication 2010 will mark a slow economic climb out of the pit. People can at least exhale and take comfort in the fact that at least the economy has stopped shrinking.
Unemployment will slow the recovery, as it hampers consumer spending, and the excess housing and manufactured goods will contain inflation and wages. Credit is still hard to come by, which will hit small businesses the hardest, another indicator that the economic recovery will remain lackluster into 2010. Taking into account people working part time who would rather be working full time and people who have given up looking all together, the true unemployment rate is closer to 18%. So it will be a long, slow climb through next year with fits of growth and plenty of setbacks.
Still, there is good news. IT companies are likely to do well, as businesses seek to utilize software to make the employees they retained more productive. Online enterprises will allow some of those who were let go to start new businesses for next to nothing, and this is the real wave of the future. The Internet will drive the recovery in 2010.
Some people are still talking about the possibility of a double dip recession, with the economy shrinking again in 2010, albeit more slowly. This is a possibility, especially if the economic supports put in place by governments to keep the economy from falling apart are scrapped too soon. If governments (aka taxpayers) are able to continue to support the world’s economies, we will escape this.
As for investing, commodities are likely to be strong, especially gold and silver. First Solar (FSLR) looks to be a good investment for 2010, though its prospects look hazier into 2011 due to competition from China and lack of incentives for consumers. With continuing international pressure to green the US economy, this may change next year. Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS) looks like a good bet too, as it posted better than expected profits for the third quarter and announced projections for 20% growth in the next year. The maker of generic drugs has secured $4 billion in new business for 2010 and has retained 99% of its clientele, making it look very promising next year. Genpact (NYSE: G), an offshoot of General Electric (NYSE: GE), may be a bit riskier, as it is still sucking from GE’s tit for nearly half of its 2008 revenues. Still, Genpact offers IT solutions that enable businesses to keep costs low.
Two stocks to stay away from in the coming year are the New York Times (NYSE: NYT) and Garmin Limited (Nasdaq: GRMN). They are both moving towards obsolescence.
The New York Times and other newspapers are being supplanted by online news organizations. Since its stock price bottomed on March 9, 2009, it has skyrocketed 131%. As advertising is down, costs can be cut no further, and print media in general suffers from an identity crisis, look for the New York Times’ stock price to flounder next year. Though eventually their online business may save the organization, it does not make up a significant part of it yet for the newspaper to turn a profit.
Garmin Unlimited, the leading makers of GPS systems in automobiles in the US, rose 79% from March 9. This only means it has that much further to fall. With the auto market showing no signs of picking up, its sales are set to be flat in the New Year. With cell phones and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) offering GPS services for free, there seems little hope that Garmin will survive past the end of 2010.
All in all, prospects for a prosperous 2010 look better than 2009, but looking back on the year that was, it really does not mean very much…
Tags: 2010 investing, 2010 predictions, g, garmin, market, new york times, nyse, nyt, recession, stocks, thestreet, trading
Power & utility companies will also be driven by the creation of the Smart Grid, which has the potential to revolutionize the entire power sector. According to Deloitte, the average efficiency of the world’s existing electricity grids is only about 33 percent versus 60 percent based on the latest technology. Smart Grids can potentially reduce energy consumption by approximately 30 percent, thereby reducing the need to build new power plants.
The Obama administration has allocated roughly $11 billion for utilities to transition their energy supply networks to digital technology. Smart technologies are expected to grow as they make significant inroads into the consumer market over the coming months. Smart metering technologies could potentially enable consumers to time shift their power usage, for example, to take advantage of off-peak rates, thereby saving them as much as 20% from their electricity bills, according to industry estimates.
SmartGrid solutions providers will likely encourage merger and acquisition activities, which savvy energy companies will want to capitalize on. SmartGrid technology solutions providers includes, General Electric Co.’s (GE) GE Energy, Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL), Florida Power & Light (FPL), Itron Inc. (ITRI), Comverge, Inc. (COMV) and Smart Grid start-up Silver Spring Networks.
Tags: 2010 predictions, 2010 stocks, COMV, FPL, GE, investing, ITRI, market, smartgrid, thestreet, trading, XEL
With the cap-and-trade debate raging, the opportunity exists for energy companies to create their own sector-specific carbon trading platform as a way to mitigate the attempts by legislators and policymakers to create legislation in 2010. A cap and trade system is a method for managing pollution, with the end goal of reducing overall pollution in a nation, region or industry. For 2010, renewable energy production is expected to intensify in the Middle East and North Africa, two places known for fossil fuels.
The geographic and demographic conditions in both areas are ideal for a new type of renewable leadership. Africa and the Middle East have climates conducive to renewable energy production — hot temperature with significant sea breezes during the day and a close proximity to the developed population centers of Europe.
The Cleantech Index (AMEX: CTIUS) and Next Generation Energy Index (NYSE: NGX) are two ways investors can capitalize on this growing sector.
Tags: 2010 investing, 2010 predictions, cap and trade, investing, market, renewable energy, stocks, the street
Oil and gas companies, such as Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Noble Energy Inc. (NBL), Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB), Murphy Oil Corporation, (MUR) and ConocoPhillips (COP) will face tough issues in 2010 as the recession continues to impact cash flow. Merger and acquisition activities will begin to rebound in 2010 as many of the struggling companies become targets for takeover. The oil and gas majors will hold on to their cash and maintain their capital expenditures during the market downturn.
Exxon Mobil announced Monday that it will purchase XTO Energy (XTO) in an all-stock deal worth $31 billion. This deal could signal a new rush to own natural gas assets by major integrated producers.
According to Deloitte, nationalism is expected to occur in areas such as Russia, Venezuela, Russia, Africa and the Middle East as Western oil companies will be informed that they must hire from the local population than hiring the best candidate available for the job.
Tags: 2010 predictions, deloitte, exxon, investing, market, oil and gas companies, stocks, the street, trading, xto
Both the fundamentals and technicals point to a very bullish 2010 forecast for the emerging markets, which is backed up by recent presentations.
For example, recently the World Bank raised its growth forecast in China for 2010. The strength of regions like China and Latin America really was crucial to powering through the worst of this global recession. While a single consumer in Brazil or Beijing doesn’t really compare to the purchasing power of a single American, the collective spending of a booming middle class in these emerging markets is huge.
Global Opportunities in 2010
Some emerging market stocks that look really good for 2010 include Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM), American Tower (AMT), CNOOC (CEO) and American Tower (AMT). All of these stocks have tremendous fundamentals and are attractive buys for 2010.
There are also two great exchange traded funds like iShares S&P Global Materials Sector Index Fund (MXI) and the iShares Emerging Market Trust (EEM) as a way to capitalize on the strength of the international stocks with far less volatility. The one I really like best is the EEM exchange traded fund. It’s in a strong price uptrend that is being confirmed by an up sloping On Balance Volume indicator.
The bottom line is the emerging market stock and ETFs are poised for growth in 2010. Cheers and Happy Investing!
Tags: 2010 investing, AMT, CEO, EEM, emerging markets, MXI, SQM, the street, thestreet, TheStreet.com
Resolve this New Year to trade smarter, to pick better, to stay in it for the long haul. And resolve, as the New Year rolls around, to make investments that, unlike the volatile market, will remains strong in an unpredictable world economy. If you’re not sure what you’re getting into moving toward January 2010, take heart—plenty of investors are in the same boat! However, there are near certainties in the market, as touch and go as it may seem, that you can bank on. Don’t break your resolution early due to a lack of preparation! Here’s a list of our tips and picks for 2010.
TIP 1—RESEARCH! Oftentimes, individuals who are new to trading will make picks on the basis of what the guy on TV says, a friend’s recommendation, or a prominent website’s position. The fact is, market veterans do the same. Don’t fall into the trap. Research your picks for 2010, and learn about the investment history of companies that you’re on the fence about.
TIP 2—TREND TRACKING. The stocks simply do not change overnight. A series of highs and lows, investment decisions, company history, and unexpected news can make or break a company poised for success. Look closely at where market confidence lies over a period of time, and choose wisely on the basis of trends you’ve followed for a time.
TIP 3—GET ORGANIZED. If your investments are not laid out in a way that you understand, and if they’re not easy to manage, you stand to lose money in the New Year. Use a tax manager to ensure that you’re not making costly mistakes, keep your trades in a spreadsheet, and make sure that you update your positions daily or weekly. Don’t let a lack of organization cause you to make poor decisions.
PICK 1—GENERAL ELECTRIC (GE). GE is a safe bet for any person looking toward the long term. While it had a substantial downturn in March (like most stocks), it has remained steady over the last few months of 2009 and is poised for growth.
PICK 2—GOOGLE (GOOG). Google is another market standard that, after severe losses following the downturn, will pick up as it introduces more technology, courts a worldwide user base, and innovates the way the web is viewed. Don’t expect Google to go away any time soon.
PICK 3—BEST BUY (BBY). Who says technology isn’t going anywhere? The past half decade has separated the wheat from the chaff where tech retailers are concerned, and Best Buy has proven its dominance on the consumer end.
PICK 4—NUANCE COMMUNICATIONS (NUAN). In 2010, Nuance will be hot. This communications company has a stake in voice recognition tech which, believe it or not, will become more important over the next couple of years. A great long-term choice.
PICK 5—FLIR SYSTEMS (FLIR). Flir is coming back up! After a dramatic downturn, this company involved in infrared technology and thermal imaging looks to make 2010 a banner year. Rising orders make Flir a decent gamble for the New Year.
Tags: 2010 investing, investing, market, stock picks, stocks, the street, thestreet, TheStreet.com
Lightning Round: United Security Bancshares, Terra Industries, Pfizer and More
The most recent episode of Mad Money included a look at Pfizer. Cramer thinks there will be growth in 2012.
Tags: Jim Cramer, Lightning Round, MadMoney, recap

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