Posts Tagged ‘2010 predictions’

Where to invest in 2010?

Monday, December 14th, 2009

The long-term economic outlook remains gloomy, but stocks should advance in 2010. Though 2009 had you on the edge of your seat, with the longest and steepest recession since World War II, gross domestic product eked out a modest growth of 3.5% in the third quarter. The stock market, which bottomed on March 9, 2009, soared 60% in the last seven months. For 2010, the growth will be anemic, with GDP predicted to be between two and three percent.

Investing in blue chip stocks is always a safe bet for any portfolio. Look for blue chip companies with strong foreign sales on their balance sheets, as well as those with a presence in China. Companies fitting this criterion include Apple Inc. (AAPL), Nike Inc. (NKE), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Monsanto Co. (MON).

Commodities such as oil and iron are traded globally and are priced in dollars. Demand from emerging markets, along with a weak dollar, will drive up prices, making this sector attractive in 2010. Natural resource producers will benefit significantly from these market trends. Players in this sector include Halliburton Company (HAL), Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) and National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NOV).

Many investors are understandably skittish about the health of the U.S. dollar and other major currencies. Gold is a great choice to balance out any portfolio. Companies such as Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM) are power plays. Not to be ignored, silver may outshine gold in 2010, as spot prices for the white metal rise due to a surge in industrial demand. Silver inventories will be replenished by the traditional industrial end users such as the electronics industry and that could take up to six months or more. Additionally, new market places for silver will be created, such as the demand for silver-zinc batteries used in “smart” automobiles. Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSRI) is one player in the mining of silver.

Lastly, health care is an enormous and growing domestic industry. The focus should be on companies that benefit significantly from cost reduction and expanded insurance coverage, as these will be players in 2010. These companies include Quest Diagnostics (DGX), which provides testing services and drug distributor, McKesson Corporation (MCK). If investing in the individual stocks isn’t what you are looking for, then consider mutual funds that invest in those stocks.

Did you like this? Share it:

Moving Forward: Predictions for 2010

Monday, December 14th, 2009

After a grueling 2009, people around the world are looking to 2010 with hope, but hope seems to remain elusive. Though officially most of the world’s economies have begun to grow again, there is still a lot of economic pain in the foreseeable future.

The good news is that the US stock market is back up about 50%, though still 25% off its highs in 2007. The US stock market usually predicts how the US economy will fare 6-12 months in the future, so if this is any indication 2010 will mark a slow economic climb out of the pit. People can at least exhale and take comfort in the fact that at least the economy has stopped shrinking.

Unemployment will slow the recovery, as it hampers consumer spending, and the excess housing and manufactured goods will contain inflation and wages. Credit is still hard to come by, which will hit small businesses the hardest, another indicator that the economic recovery will remain lackluster into 2010. Taking into account people working part time who would rather be working full time and people who have given up looking all together, the true unemployment rate is closer to 18%. So it will be a long, slow climb through next year with fits of growth and plenty of setbacks.

Still, there is good news. IT companies are likely to do well, as businesses seek to utilize software to make the employees they retained more productive. Online enterprises will allow some of those who were let go to start new businesses for next to nothing, and this is the real wave of the future. The Internet will drive the recovery in 2010.

Some people are still talking about the possibility of a double dip recession, with the economy shrinking again in 2010, albeit more slowly. This is a possibility, especially if the economic supports put in place by governments to keep the economy from falling apart are scrapped too soon. If governments (aka taxpayers) are able to continue to support the world’s economies, we will escape this.

As for investing, commodities are likely to be strong, especially gold and silver. First Solar (FSLR) looks to be a good investment for 2010, though its prospects look hazier into 2011 due to competition from China and lack of incentives for consumers. With continuing international pressure to green the US economy, this may change next year. Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS) looks like a good bet too, as it posted better than expected profits for the third quarter and announced projections for 20% growth in the next year. The maker of generic drugs has secured $4 billion in new business for 2010 and has retained 99% of its clientele, making it look very promising next year. Genpact (NYSE: G), an offshoot of General Electric (NYSE: GE), may be a bit riskier, as it is still sucking from GE’s tit for nearly half of its 2008 revenues. Still, Genpact offers IT solutions that enable businesses to keep costs low.

Two stocks to stay away from in the coming year are the New York Times (NYSE: NYT) and Garmin Limited (Nasdaq: GRMN). They are both moving towards obsolescence.

The New York Times and other newspapers are being supplanted by online news organizations. Since its stock price bottomed on March 9, 2009, it has skyrocketed 131%. As advertising is down, costs can be cut no further, and print media in general suffers from an identity crisis, look for the New York Times’ stock price to flounder next year. Though eventually their online business may save the organization, it does not make up a significant part of it yet for the newspaper to turn a profit.

Garmin Unlimited, the leading makers of GPS systems in automobiles in the US, rose 79% from March 9. This only means it has that much further to fall. With the auto market showing no signs of picking up, its sales are set to be flat in the New Year. With cell phones and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) offering GPS services for free, there seems little hope that Garmin will survive past the end of 2010.

All in all, prospects for a prosperous 2010 look better than 2009, but looking back on the year that was, it really does not mean very much…

Did you like this? Share it:

Smart Grid Poised for Takeoff

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Power & utility companies will also be driven by the creation of the Smart Grid, which has the potential to revolutionize the entire power sector. According to Deloitte, the average efficiency of the world’s existing electricity grids is only about 33 percent versus 60 percent based on the latest technology. Smart Grids can potentially reduce energy consumption by approximately 30 percent, thereby reducing the need to build new power plants.

The Obama administration has allocated roughly $11 billion for utilities to transition their energy supply networks to digital technology. Smart technologies are expected to grow as they make significant inroads into the consumer market over the coming months. Smart metering technologies could potentially enable consumers to time shift their power usage, for example, to take advantage of off-peak rates, thereby saving them as much as 20% from their electricity bills, according to industry estimates.

SmartGrid solutions providers will likely encourage merger and acquisition activities, which savvy energy companies will want to capitalize on. SmartGrid technology solutions providers includes, General Electric Co.’s (GE) GE Energy, Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL), Florida Power & Light (FPL), Itron Inc. (ITRI), Comverge, Inc. (COMV) and Smart Grid start-up Silver Spring Networks.

Did you like this? Share it:

Renewable Energy Set to Take Off in 2010

Monday, December 14th, 2009

With the cap-and-trade debate raging, the opportunity exists for energy companies to create their own sector-specific carbon trading platform as a way to mitigate the attempts by legislators and policymakers to create legislation in 2010. A cap and trade system is a method for managing pollution, with the end goal of reducing overall pollution in a nation, region or industry. For 2010, renewable energy production is expected to intensify in the Middle East and North Africa, two places known for fossil fuels.

The geographic and demographic conditions in both areas are ideal for a new type of renewable leadership. Africa and the Middle East have climates conducive to renewable energy production — hot temperature with significant sea breezes during the day and a close proximity to the developed population centers of Europe.

The Cleantech Index (AMEX: CTIUS) and Next Generation Energy Index (NYSE: NGX) are two ways investors can capitalize on this growing sector.

Did you like this? Share it:

Oil and Gas Companies are Worth a Look in 2010

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Oil and gas companies, such as Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Noble Energy Inc. (NBL), Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB), Murphy Oil Corporation, (MUR) and ConocoPhillips (COP) will face tough issues in 2010 as the recession continues to impact cash flow. Merger and acquisition activities will begin to rebound in 2010 as many of the struggling companies become targets for takeover. The oil and gas majors will hold on to their cash and maintain their capital expenditures during the market downturn.

Exxon Mobil announced Monday that it will purchase XTO Energy (XTO) in an all-stock deal worth $31 billion. This deal could signal a new rush to own natural gas assets by major integrated producers.

According to Deloitte, nationalism is expected to occur in areas such as Russia, Venezuela, Russia, Africa and the Middle East as Western oil companies will be informed that they must hire from the local population than hiring the best candidate available for the job.

Did you like this? Share it:

The Twitter Effect

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Few would disparage the growing potential of online social media in 2010 and in the years to come. Yet many businesses have only a vague idea about how to harness this powerful tool for business purposes. This will change in 2010. In fact, it is already changing. Some businesses already advertise for people who know their way around online social networking sites, understanding instinctively that engaging “experts” in this burgeoning field will help them increase their client base.

These online communities have begun to alter the way companies trade, and social media has played an ever greater role in the past few years bringing people together for business. In 2010 we will see a melding of all manner of social media, as Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, YouTube, and others increasingly interact with each other. Google (NASDAQ: Goog) will move this integration forward, and Google Wave, their new concept of an integrated social tool combined with real time communication, will be the new big thing for 2010. Google already controls YouTube, and it is a safe bet that it will begin to invest in other social media sites that it can incorporate into its own social media platform.

Marketing

Whether for multi-national corporations, small businesses, or individuals, the social media phenomenon allows easy access to customers and a means whereby a producer can market its products and services quickly and with minimal expense. The growth of Twitter has shown how networks can be easily grown, offering information to ever-expanding networks of potential customers. By sharing links to websites, a person can easily find out more about products and services, and purchase them, without even leaving their desk.

As the use of social media marketing grows, we will see ever more clever advertising to engage and persuade potential customers to buy. Traditional advertisers will move more dollars online, and advertising on other forms of media will wane.

Media

As newspapers, magazines, television, radio, and other media merge with each other and go online, the lines between different types of media companies will blur. Time Warner’s (NYSE: TWX) CNN already offers news blogs, many written by citizen reporters. Citizen reporters will become increasingly important, and though many will lament the death of the professional journalist, there will still be a place for those professionals who can cross the lines between television, radio, print, and online media. Journalism will not die; it will morph into something new.

Movies, however, will not die in 2010. Neither television nor the development of video, or later DVDs, killed the movie theaters. Downloading of movies from the Internet may very well take business away from physical video stores, instead moving this business completely online.

Customer Service

Companies with social media presences will allow conversations to develop between themselves and their customers. Usually this will be a good thing, allowing consumers to help companies make products or develop services that become increasingly more consumer friendly. People will become attached to certain providers, depending on their preferences, and niches will develop that will provide a more directed outlet for customer service.

For example, a person with young children will go to those social media sites where they can meet others with young children, and makers of children’s products can offer sponsored advice on all aspects of raising children. In the same manner too gamers can go to sites where they can get hints for their favorite online games, and the makers for those games can offer support. In this respect, look at the lines between customer service and marketing to become increasingly more hazy.

Social media also levels the playing field between large corporations, smaller business entities, and individuals. If something goes wrong in a business relationship, consumers will increasingly use social media to get their complaints heard. State Farm is finding this out the hard way, as a widow who claims that she was unfairly treated by the company has set up a website and consistently tweets her story to thousands. Customer service becomes increasingly important when an unhappy customer can spread their bad experience around the globe in minutes.

Virtualization of Business

The way employees work will change dramatically in the coming year due to social media. Meetings and conventions will become fewer as companies seek to save money by having virtual meetings in virtual worlds. Microblogging will become a common way to communicate between employees, and cell phones will become increasingly more a part of this communication. Social networking will create groups of people working together on projects, and it will not matter whether they are in the next room or on the other side of the world. Blogs will become training manuals, and will be updated regularly. They will also be utilized as marketing tools, as they are now, though blogging specialists will develop to fashion tools to help employees become ever more productive.

Other Stuff

Social media has not limited its reach only to business. In 2008, President Obama showed how social media can drive a campaign. Look for the Republicans to take a page from this book and use it to their advantage in the 2010 Congressional elections next year. We also saw this year how Twitter helped protesters in Iran organize against a repressive regime. Look for this type of use of technology to increase and to make people around the world freer.

Non-profit organizations have also used social media to get out their message and to raise funds. This will increase, as will their presence online as they use their social networking sites to educate the public.

All of these social media trends and more will influence society, business and the markets in 2010 and beyond.

Did you like this? Share it: