Posts Tagged ‘investing’

Mad Money Recap, March 29, 2010

Tuesday, March 30th, 2010

On “Mad Money” March 29, Jim Cramer talked about must-use techniques in purchasing stocks and managing your portfolio. He said actively investing in stocks, rather than having someone else manage your money or waiting for index funds to appreciate, is essential in the wake of the crash of 2008. He suggested spending five to 10 hours weekly managing your portfolio and doing the research. Mimicking the market’s returns rarely works. You have to put in the time by actively managing your portfolio and doing the research. You can beat the averages, but you have to exercise some patience and determination.

The “New Highs List”:

There are a few tools of the trade to pick stocks and manage your portfolio. Watching the “New Highs List” is one tool that never fails. The stocks on the “New Highs List” have something going for them, especially when the market is in bad shape. Either its part of a genuine bull market or it has some serious momentum. Many stocks on this list often keeps going higher and higher. There are some caveats to this however. It is still a good place to start. There is more continuity than change. Only when there are shifts, then you have to change course. Therefore you have to keep doing your homework. There have to be special circumstances. For example, on Monday’s “New Highs List” Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF), which is a mining and natural resources company that produces iron ore pellets, lump and fines iron ore, and metallurgical coal, surged $1.59 to close at $72.95, after setting a new 52 week-high of $73.95 before pulling back $1.00. This would be a stock to put on your watch-list.

Wait for something to pull back from the “new high list.” It gives you a good lower price entry in a stock. You must always be conscious of price. Purchase on weakness, sell on strength. You should purchase these stocks if you are confident of a comeback. Make sure they haven’t pulled back for a good reason and not just the market pulling back. If the fundamentals haven’t changed, it may have pulled back for mechanical reasons – profit-taking, etc. These reasons should have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company. If the opposite is true, the stock is no longer a candidate to be purchased.

Finding Great Buys:

You can get a better deal if you are patient and wait for some weakness. There are cases in which buying off the new high list is justified, especially, if the stock is so “hot” because it’s not going lower in the near future. If that is the case, which is a rarity, it would be wise not to buy all the shares at one time. For example, purchase 25 shares first. There is one exception. If your research uncovers insiders buying colossal amounts of stock when it’s at its 52 week high, then that is a great sign of their confidence in the business. The reality is that these insiders don’t think there will be a pull-back in the stock price. Still, you must do the homework and check the fundamentals about the company, including reading through the transcripts of the conference calls.

When a stock has a huge short position is also a great time to purchase shares in the company. There are a lot of people who have serious conviction that the stock is going down. The potential downside is infinite. If there are a lot of short-sellers, you get a short squeeze. In order to bail on their position, they have to buy more shares to cover their positions and close out their losses. This will cause the stock to surge. Similarly, when a company with a heavily shorted stock announces a buyback some of its shares, that is also a good sign. A substantial new buyback in the face of shorts is a good sign and worth a second look, however, you must proceed with caution. The balance of power has shifted in favor of the shorts and against you; therefore, you must avoid situations where the shorts are determined to crush the stock at any cost.

How to Trade Stocks:

Trading around a core position is paramount. Trading is about profiting from short term fluctuations in stock. Knowing how to trade makes you a better investor. First, pick a stock you believe will go higher over the long term, though it will get tossed around by market volatility. Buy in increments. For example, you want to buy 300 shares of Boeing. You should do so increments – 100 shares three times — over a period of time and that would be your core position. Every time the stock rises, you sell some shares to a shave off a profit. Wait until something knocks the stock down, you buy it back in increments. Over time your profits add up and that is what trading around a core position is. It is the height of prudent portfolio adjustment. There are rules to follow. Avoid putting yourself in a spot where you have too much or too little shares of the company.

Using options is the ultimate method of taking your trading to the next level. This will allow you to net small gains that will add up over time. When you have a stock with a lot of momentum, you need to know when to get out. The key to figure out when interest has piqued in a stock and it’s time to sell is by watching the Wall Street analyst coverage. Once hot stock has at least four analysts covering it, the means the run is almost over. It is a good gauge of how much interest and awareness there is in a particular stock. Hot stocks get tapped out when there is nobody left to be attracted to them. All the people interested in purchasing the stock have already done so. It is time to sell. It’s better to take your winnings than wait until the stock starts to cool off. Once too many people know about the stock, the stock will run out of steam and will never recover to the initial stock surge.

The steps given by Jim Cramer are common sense moves for any prudent investor. It takes time to understand and learn how to trade to effectively maximize your profits.

Janet Shan

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Starbucks: A short bounce to a longer upswing?

Friday, February 12th, 2010

After the 2009 rollercoaster of layoffs, store closures, and Via instant coffee, Starbucks (SBUX) turned in a stunning first quarter earnings that now seem ripe for contrarian action. At the end of January, 18.81M shares were shorted.

Cynical investors might call this move less contrarian wisdom and more quick-profit bounce. After all, while December’s quarterly gross profits jumped to $241.5M from the previous year’s $64.3M earnings, history still indicates the company has some climbing left to do before matching the almost $5.8B earnings reported in September, 2008. Long-term holders might also be tempted to follow the shorts after glancing at a $22 share price and a $29.96 P/E ratio.

It’s certainly reasonable to ask whether this stock can continue its yearly upward run from a $9.41 share price past its current $22.59 price as of February 11, 2010. Shall we ignore the contrarians or leap onto the haymaking wagon as it trundles by?

Perhaps. But before jumping, consider whether this short bounce might actually be an ill-conceived bet against an inevitable ascent.

Last month, The Next Web reported on the company’s social media efforts to gain and retain an even greater customer base. The numbers are quite imposing.

• Almost 777,000 followers on Twitter
• Over 5.7 million fans on Facebook
• Over 5,000 subscribers to Starbucks YouTube

What’s more impressive is how this 16.8B market cap giant effectively uses these tools to create a individualized fan experience. Twitter answers questions, retweets comments, announces free drink samples, and new iPhone apps while Facebook is used for video uploads, blog posts, event invites, and fan forum discussions. For the geek enthusiasts, Starbucks YouTube has videos on anything from coffee blends to the company’s history to various charity work, including the recent Haiti relief effort.

There’s even a My Starbucks Idea forum where customers can suggest and vote on new ideas while the Ideas in Action Starbucks blog, tells customers what the company’s actually doing with the winning proposals.

Time will tell whether all the social media hype and pizzazz will convert these statistics into actual cash sales. But before writing all of it off as a cynical effort to further push over-priced, burnt coffee on clueless customers, consider one last point.

Not too long ago, hitting the local Starbucks was one of the easiest luxuries to dump for financially-pressed consumers. Now it’s roared back in true contrarian fashion, as one of the few affordable perks in a continued recessionary grind.

Short at your own risk.

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The Oil Addiction

Friday, February 12th, 2010

During a recent segment of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money which aired on Feb 1st, he highlighted Natural Gas. Jim interviewed CEO of EQT Murray Gerber. EQT is a 120-year-old company based out of Pittsburgh, PA, that drills natural gas in the Appalachian basin. EQT trades on the NYSE and as of the close on Feb 11, 2010 its closing stock price was 42.01, which is down YTD approximately 5%.

Cramer stated that he felt natural gas was a great oil alternative and didn’t understand why it doesn’t get more attention in America’s efforts to reduce her dependence on foreign oil sources. Cramer went so far to say that “If you are not for natural gas, then you are for buying foreign oil,” and I would have to agree. According to many natural gas experts America has at least 125 years of supply. T. Boone Pickens is probably the most notable leader in this alternative/transition energy phase. He states that “America is the Saudi Arabia of natural gas.”

Clearly the United States has been addicted to oil for quite some time. It is a hard addiction to shake! You would think that the 70’s oil embargoes, the Iran crisis in the late 70’s, and exponential price increases in 2008 would motivate the country to check into oil detox programs immediately. But just like any junkie, we still continue to look for our oil fix.

Natural gas prices are approximately $5.35 per MMBTU (10,000 million British Thermal Units) versus oil’s $73 a barrel. It is cleaner and cheaper then oil, so you would think the natural order of supply and demand theory would easily introduce natural gas as a better substitute and increase its overall usage throughout the country’s entire energy mix. But since this natural order has been disturbed, could possible mean that some outside force has interrupted this process, perhaps a political one, supported by a strong lobbyist organization?

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Smart Grid Poised for Takeoff

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Power & utility companies will also be driven by the creation of the Smart Grid, which has the potential to revolutionize the entire power sector. According to Deloitte, the average efficiency of the world’s existing electricity grids is only about 33 percent versus 60 percent based on the latest technology. Smart Grids can potentially reduce energy consumption by approximately 30 percent, thereby reducing the need to build new power plants.

The Obama administration has allocated roughly $11 billion for utilities to transition their energy supply networks to digital technology. Smart technologies are expected to grow as they make significant inroads into the consumer market over the coming months. Smart metering technologies could potentially enable consumers to time shift their power usage, for example, to take advantage of off-peak rates, thereby saving them as much as 20% from their electricity bills, according to industry estimates.

SmartGrid solutions providers will likely encourage merger and acquisition activities, which savvy energy companies will want to capitalize on. SmartGrid technology solutions providers includes, General Electric Co.’s (GE) GE Energy, Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL), Florida Power & Light (FPL), Itron Inc. (ITRI), Comverge, Inc. (COMV) and Smart Grid start-up Silver Spring Networks.

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Renewable Energy Set to Take Off in 2010

Monday, December 14th, 2009

With the cap-and-trade debate raging, the opportunity exists for energy companies to create their own sector-specific carbon trading platform as a way to mitigate the attempts by legislators and policymakers to create legislation in 2010. A cap and trade system is a method for managing pollution, with the end goal of reducing overall pollution in a nation, region or industry. For 2010, renewable energy production is expected to intensify in the Middle East and North Africa, two places known for fossil fuels.

The geographic and demographic conditions in both areas are ideal for a new type of renewable leadership. Africa and the Middle East have climates conducive to renewable energy production — hot temperature with significant sea breezes during the day and a close proximity to the developed population centers of Europe.

The Cleantech Index (AMEX: CTIUS) and Next Generation Energy Index (NYSE: NGX) are two ways investors can capitalize on this growing sector.

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Oil and Gas Companies are Worth a Look in 2010

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Oil and gas companies, such as Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Noble Energy Inc. (NBL), Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB), Murphy Oil Corporation, (MUR) and ConocoPhillips (COP) will face tough issues in 2010 as the recession continues to impact cash flow. Merger and acquisition activities will begin to rebound in 2010 as many of the struggling companies become targets for takeover. The oil and gas majors will hold on to their cash and maintain their capital expenditures during the market downturn.

Exxon Mobil announced Monday that it will purchase XTO Energy (XTO) in an all-stock deal worth $31 billion. This deal could signal a new rush to own natural gas assets by major integrated producers.

According to Deloitte, nationalism is expected to occur in areas such as Russia, Venezuela, Russia, Africa and the Middle East as Western oil companies will be informed that they must hire from the local population than hiring the best candidate available for the job.

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Look for the gold market to regain its momentum in 2010

Sunday, December 13th, 2009

Despite the recent retracement in the gold market there still is much more upside based on a very robust fundamental outlook. Consider: According to Bernanke’s latest comments the Federal Reserve does not plan on raising interest rates anytime soon, and huge deficits will be here for a while. This certainly leads to a continued bullish scenario for gold. In addition, you have countries like China, Russia and India increasing their gold purchasing plans for 2010.

Given this outlook there are a handful of fundamentally superior stocks within the gold sector that are poised to do quite well when gold takes off again. These include: GoldCorp (GG), Freeport-McMoran Gold & Copper (FCX), Gulf Resources (GFRE), and IAMGOLD Corp (IAG). All these stocks have great sales growth and positive cash flow but one that really stands out as a great buy is GoldCorp (GG).

GoldCorp is one of the largest precious-metal mining companies in the world, operating mainly in Canada and South America. The company produces more than 2.3 million ounces of gold annually and has about 45 million ounces in proved and probable reserves. What makes this company such a good buy is its tremendous operating margins. It costs GoldCorp $310 per ounce to mine gold, which is the lowest of all its competitors. As the uptrend in gold prices starts to resume again these low production costs spells huge profit growth for the company going forward (as well as a nice surge in the stock price).

Another way to invest in this secular uptrend is to invest in the exchange traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). The GLD price is in an uptrend and this uptrend is being confirmed by the up sloping On balance Volume (OBV) indicator. The up trending OBV indicator shows that volume is increasing on price up days and is decreasing on down days, which bolsters the technical case for the price uptrend to continue.

Combining this attractive technical profile with the solid fundamental picture for the gold sector renders this particular ETF a compelling buy and certainly is an effective way to capture profits from the continued uptrend with far less volatility.

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Cramer’s Jolly Retail Report is a Bit Ho-Ho-Hum

Sunday, December 13th, 2009

On last Thursday’s Mad Money episode, Jim Cramer sang the praises of the retail sector, telling viewers “the prevailing wisdom on Wall Street is just too negative”. While I agree that there is some truth to that, I don’t think the bulls are loose either. And an even bigger issue is the way many of the “iconic” brands that Cramer likes do business. Some of these change-resistant corporations have been slow to update their business models. But I think that the post-recession consumer market will dictate some changes to how retailers stay profitable and unless these companies adjust, they could be in big trouble.

Cramer and I see eye to eye on the housing sector. Thanks to the first time homebuyer’s credit, many consumers bought homes this year. Along with a new house comes a desire to fix it up and the trend toward home improvement has been clearly seen through the performance of a few of Cramer’s picks. Sherwin-Williams (NYSE:SHW) has performed well for the year, even during the recession. And Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Masco (NYSE:MAS) have done very well, both posting gains of more than 20 percent for the year. As the recession eases, I fully expect these stocks will continue to rise, as does Cramer.

On the other hand, Cramer likes retailers. Even the bloated, old-fashioned ones like Macy’s (NYSE:M). I think Macy’s is a disaster. The company is up 55 percent for the year, but it’s still only trading at around half of its year-high. And that’s with the retail season in full swing. Cramer also likes Target (NYSE:TGT), which is up substantially for the year and has almost recovered its trading high. Target definitely looks better than Macy’s to me, but the problem for both of these stores is that what’s saving them right now are their lesser-known housewares segments, while their main product departments have gone stagnant. Macy’s apparel is staying firmly on the shelf and, as Wal-Mart improves its product lines, Target has been steadily losing its appeal to mass-retailer audiences.

Online retailers, though, like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Overstock.com (NASDAQ:OSTK) are doing great. With the rise of Cyber Monday, I think that consumers will increasingly turn to the ease, convenience and comfort of online shopping. If so, I expect that online retail stocks will be on the upswing for some time.

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Merrill Acquisition Lands Bank of America in Hot Water

Sunday, December 13th, 2009

The Merrill Lynch deal probably sounded good at the time. But Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) is still taking it on the chin from this ill-conceived idea. First, their stock plummeted. Then, their CEO was essentially forced out. Now, the company and some top execs will be facing charges from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

While no formal charges have been filed as of yet, SEC Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami stated that the agency would “vigorously pursue (its) charges against Bank of America and…prove (its) case in court”. The SEC claims that BofA held back from disclosing Merrill Lynch’s true financial position and its record bonus payments to shareholders, who then approved the merger. The SEC also charges that CEO Ken Lewis held back from telling investors that then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed Chief Ben Bernanke had pressured him into closing the Merrill deal.

For the SEC, which is still licking its wounds from Madoff-gate, this is a golden opportunity to reassert its regulatory control over a financial sector that has been free-wheeling for twenty years. For Bank of America, it’s another setback for a company that was just beginning to reclaim its financial footing. No successor for outgoing CEO Lewis has been named, but the next person who takes the top job at BofA would do well to be a little more transparent.

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TheStreet.com – Winners and Losers on Dec 10, 2009

Sunday, December 13th, 2009

The Street.com posted an interesting story this past Thursday about the winners and losers of the day. While consumer stocks and commodities continue to lead the indices in gains (per expectation of many investors), the most interesting subtext was the story told by two particular stocks, Alcoa and Barrick Gold Corp. With the hype surrounding the gold market these days, seeing the stock drop from its one-year high of near $48 on December 2 to $41 on December 10 seems troublesome. Alcoa, on the other hand, looks strong after apparently striking an energy supplies deal with the Italian government—although after hours, the story changed.

BARRICK’S TUMBLE. A sharp drop in gold prices since earlier this month has investors concerned over gold stocks, at least in the short term. However, Barrick’s troubles may continue to mount. It was reported on December 4 that Barrick’s new Cortez Hills gold mine in Nevada may be temporarily halted for environmental testing. As the U.S. dollar continued to ride the data suggest consumer confidence this holiday season, Barrick continued its tumble. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council announced on Thursday the appointment of a new chairman, Ian Telfer, to replace Greg Wilkins, Barrick’s vice president. As the Credit Suisse Group pulled ahead, Barrick’s fell an additional 0.7 on Thursday.

ALCOA’S GAINS. One of Thursday’s biggest winners was Alcoa, which enjoyed a healthy jump following an up-and-down week. While it has yet in December to match last month’s highs, Alcoa showed 3% gain on the news that the Italian government had struck a deal with the company. The deal on energy supplies, touted by the Italian government, would have certainly affected last month’s decision to temporarily close two aluminum smelters in Italy due to concerns about competitive rates looking forward. Interestingly, by day’s end Alcoa had denied the report from the Italian government, explaining that forward motion had been made in talks but no formal agreement was set. After hours, Alcoa continued to gain.

ASSESSMENT. It is far too early to determine what will become of gold prices, and trying to decide on the basis of consumer confidence leading into the holidays is futile. The best bet for investors is to stay the course on gold until the market shows clearer signs of a strengthening dollar or consistently falling gold prices. Barrick’s tumble seems more to do with the company than with gold itself. Alcoa’s gains, on the other hand, are baffling in that the company began looking up in a pretty substantial way a day before any announcement was made. It may well be that Alcoa is gaining back some of the strength it displayed last month—the stock has peaked once or twice a month since August (excepting a smaller bump last month) and, bullish minds might suggest, could push back toward its mid-September highs.

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