Posts Tagged ‘markets’

Mad Money Recap, March 29, 2010

Tuesday, March 30th, 2010

On “Mad Money” March 29, Jim Cramer talked about must-use techniques in purchasing stocks and managing your portfolio. He said actively investing in stocks, rather than having someone else manage your money or waiting for index funds to appreciate, is essential in the wake of the crash of 2008. He suggested spending five to 10 hours weekly managing your portfolio and doing the research. Mimicking the market’s returns rarely works. You have to put in the time by actively managing your portfolio and doing the research. You can beat the averages, but you have to exercise some patience and determination.

The “New Highs List”:

There are a few tools of the trade to pick stocks and manage your portfolio. Watching the “New Highs List” is one tool that never fails. The stocks on the “New Highs List” have something going for them, especially when the market is in bad shape. Either its part of a genuine bull market or it has some serious momentum. Many stocks on this list often keeps going higher and higher. There are some caveats to this however. It is still a good place to start. There is more continuity than change. Only when there are shifts, then you have to change course. Therefore you have to keep doing your homework. There have to be special circumstances. For example, on Monday’s “New Highs List” Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF), which is a mining and natural resources company that produces iron ore pellets, lump and fines iron ore, and metallurgical coal, surged $1.59 to close at $72.95, after setting a new 52 week-high of $73.95 before pulling back $1.00. This would be a stock to put on your watch-list.

Wait for something to pull back from the “new high list.” It gives you a good lower price entry in a stock. You must always be conscious of price. Purchase on weakness, sell on strength. You should purchase these stocks if you are confident of a comeback. Make sure they haven’t pulled back for a good reason and not just the market pulling back. If the fundamentals haven’t changed, it may have pulled back for mechanical reasons – profit-taking, etc. These reasons should have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company. If the opposite is true, the stock is no longer a candidate to be purchased.

Finding Great Buys:

You can get a better deal if you are patient and wait for some weakness. There are cases in which buying off the new high list is justified, especially, if the stock is so “hot” because it’s not going lower in the near future. If that is the case, which is a rarity, it would be wise not to buy all the shares at one time. For example, purchase 25 shares first. There is one exception. If your research uncovers insiders buying colossal amounts of stock when it’s at its 52 week high, then that is a great sign of their confidence in the business. The reality is that these insiders don’t think there will be a pull-back in the stock price. Still, you must do the homework and check the fundamentals about the company, including reading through the transcripts of the conference calls.

When a stock has a huge short position is also a great time to purchase shares in the company. There are a lot of people who have serious conviction that the stock is going down. The potential downside is infinite. If there are a lot of short-sellers, you get a short squeeze. In order to bail on their position, they have to buy more shares to cover their positions and close out their losses. This will cause the stock to surge. Similarly, when a company with a heavily shorted stock announces a buyback some of its shares, that is also a good sign. A substantial new buyback in the face of shorts is a good sign and worth a second look, however, you must proceed with caution. The balance of power has shifted in favor of the shorts and against you; therefore, you must avoid situations where the shorts are determined to crush the stock at any cost.

How to Trade Stocks:

Trading around a core position is paramount. Trading is about profiting from short term fluctuations in stock. Knowing how to trade makes you a better investor. First, pick a stock you believe will go higher over the long term, though it will get tossed around by market volatility. Buy in increments. For example, you want to buy 300 shares of Boeing. You should do so increments – 100 shares three times — over a period of time and that would be your core position. Every time the stock rises, you sell some shares to a shave off a profit. Wait until something knocks the stock down, you buy it back in increments. Over time your profits add up and that is what trading around a core position is. It is the height of prudent portfolio adjustment. There are rules to follow. Avoid putting yourself in a spot where you have too much or too little shares of the company.

Using options is the ultimate method of taking your trading to the next level. This will allow you to net small gains that will add up over time. When you have a stock with a lot of momentum, you need to know when to get out. The key to figure out when interest has piqued in a stock and it’s time to sell is by watching the Wall Street analyst coverage. Once hot stock has at least four analysts covering it, the means the run is almost over. It is a good gauge of how much interest and awareness there is in a particular stock. Hot stocks get tapped out when there is nobody left to be attracted to them. All the people interested in purchasing the stock have already done so. It is time to sell. It’s better to take your winnings than wait until the stock starts to cool off. Once too many people know about the stock, the stock will run out of steam and will never recover to the initial stock surge.

The steps given by Jim Cramer are common sense moves for any prudent investor. It takes time to understand and learn how to trade to effectively maximize your profits.

Janet Shan

Did you like this? Share it:

TheStreet.com – Headlines of Interest

Monday, February 15th, 2010

U.S. Department of Transportation Tentatively Approves American Airlines & British Airways Alliance

The Department of Transportation has tentatively approved American Airlines, British Airways and fellow Oneworld Alliance partners Iberia Airlines, Finnair and Royal Jordanian Airlines bid to expand their trans-Atlantic operations. According to thestreet.com, the proposed agreement would create a unified network of about 500 possible destinations in more than 100 countries. The carriers can jointly price, market and schedule international flights in their alliance without committing any antitrust violations that could lead to prosecution, provided that they agreed to cede to rival airlines four pairs of takeoff and landing slots at the United Kingdom’s Heathrow Airport.

American Airlines, a subsidiary of AMR Corp., British Airways and Iberia Airlines intend to create and operate a joint venture between the U.S., Mexico, Canada, the European Union, Switzerland and Norway. The obvious benefits of this alliance include lower fares on more routes for customers and better schedules. The alliance could have a negative effect on competition on some routes between the United States and Heathrow airport. The deal could also give the partners a dominant market position on routes between Heathrow and U.S. destinations like Dallas-Fort Worth, Boston and Miami. Alliances have become a viable alternative for air carriers who are struggling amid a downturn in air traffic. Many carriers are scrambling to reduce operating costs and are actively seeking new revenue streams.

There are similar trans-Atlantic partnerships in operation such as Lufthansa, Continental Airlines, United Air Lines and Air Canada of the Star Alliance and some members of the SkyTeam, Air France-KLM and Delta Air Lines. The Department of Transportation is allowing for a 60-day comment period before it makes its tentative approval decision final.

PetMed Express is a Good Defensive Addition to any Stock Portfolio

PetMed Express, on online pet-prescription retailer, has increased profit for 11 consecutive quarters and has been called a model of consistency. According to thestreet.com, during the last three years the company, based in Pompano Beach, Fla., has boosted revenue 15% annually. This is a good addition to the portfolio of any investor looking for a defensive play, especially in this economic climate.

PetMed is off to a good start in 2010, after it hit a speed bump last October following the release of fiscal second-quarter results. The stock has rallied eight percent in 2010, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 3.7% and as the S&P 500 fell 4.2%. PetMed’s fiscal third-quarter net income jumped 14% to $5.6 million and earnings per share climbed 19% to 25 cents. The company’s operating margin has held steady at 17%.

PetMed, which bills itself as America’s largest pet pharmacy, market capitalization is $442,300 million and its shares closed Friday at $19.35, with a P/E ratio of 17.26%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2.07%. With the spending on pet medicine expected to increase over time, PetMed is well positioned to participate in any increase in the pet medicine market as a whole, as well as gain market share. The company, despite the United States being in a recession, attracted 802,000 new customers in 2009 vs. 710,000 in 2008. It is also highly unlikely that pet owners, who use PetMed, will actively shop around for pet medicine. The company, which is a market leader with the lowest prices, offers its customers a quick and easy platform for repeat purchases.

Did you like this? Share it:

Starbucks: A short bounce to a longer upswing?

Friday, February 12th, 2010

After the 2009 rollercoaster of layoffs, store closures, and Via instant coffee, Starbucks (SBUX) turned in a stunning first quarter earnings that now seem ripe for contrarian action. At the end of January, 18.81M shares were shorted.

Cynical investors might call this move less contrarian wisdom and more quick-profit bounce. After all, while December’s quarterly gross profits jumped to $241.5M from the previous year’s $64.3M earnings, history still indicates the company has some climbing left to do before matching the almost $5.8B earnings reported in September, 2008. Long-term holders might also be tempted to follow the shorts after glancing at a $22 share price and a $29.96 P/E ratio.

It’s certainly reasonable to ask whether this stock can continue its yearly upward run from a $9.41 share price past its current $22.59 price as of February 11, 2010. Shall we ignore the contrarians or leap onto the haymaking wagon as it trundles by?

Perhaps. But before jumping, consider whether this short bounce might actually be an ill-conceived bet against an inevitable ascent.

Last month, The Next Web reported on the company’s social media efforts to gain and retain an even greater customer base. The numbers are quite imposing.

• Almost 777,000 followers on Twitter
• Over 5.7 million fans on Facebook
• Over 5,000 subscribers to Starbucks YouTube

What’s more impressive is how this 16.8B market cap giant effectively uses these tools to create a individualized fan experience. Twitter answers questions, retweets comments, announces free drink samples, and new iPhone apps while Facebook is used for video uploads, blog posts, event invites, and fan forum discussions. For the geek enthusiasts, Starbucks YouTube has videos on anything from coffee blends to the company’s history to various charity work, including the recent Haiti relief effort.

There’s even a My Starbucks Idea forum where customers can suggest and vote on new ideas while the Ideas in Action Starbucks blog, tells customers what the company’s actually doing with the winning proposals.

Time will tell whether all the social media hype and pizzazz will convert these statistics into actual cash sales. But before writing all of it off as a cynical effort to further push over-priced, burnt coffee on clueless customers, consider one last point.

Not too long ago, hitting the local Starbucks was one of the easiest luxuries to dump for financially-pressed consumers. Now it’s roared back in true contrarian fashion, as one of the few affordable perks in a continued recessionary grind.

Short at your own risk.

Did you like this? Share it:

Cloudy Focus

Friday, February 12th, 2010

On Feb 5th, I saw Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money.” For the record I think Jim’s show is great (that’s right we are on a first name basis). It is rare to find a financial show that can educate and entertain on a consistent basis and Jim has clearly mastered this.

During this episode he talked about the current earnings season results and how many of the companies were blowing away the estimates. My sentiment is analysts have been watering down earnings estimates, since the economy is such a tough spot. This watered down effect makes it much easier for companies to surpass earnings estimates. In my opinion the majority of companies that are surpassing their earnings estimates are doing so because of deep costing cutting and productivity gains, and not so much from top line growth. But this is not the focus on this post.

What I was most shocked by during the show was Cramer’s statement, “Earnings this week will overshadow Europe and the unemployment figures….” My jaw dropped! Nothing could be further from the truth! Unemployment is a central theme in economics and politics at this critic juncture. The unemployment rate is at its highest since the early 1980s. We have roughly 10 million people unemployed. That is not a modest figure! The employment situation made the President do an about face and shift his focus from purely health care to JOBS and health care.

Across the Atlantic, the PIIGs (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Greece) debt situation has the entire world’s attention. Today the EU stated that they will aid Greece with their debt problems. Unfortunately, the details of this aide are sketchy at best and there was no mention of any assistance for any of the other debt-laden EU zone nations.

The employment and EU debt saga has totally eclipsed every aspect of the investment community. Sorry to say it, Jim was wrong about this one!

Did you like this? Share it:

Look for the Technology Sector to finish strong in 2010

Friday, February 12th, 2010

Hi-Tech stocks have a real good chance of being an extremely conducive place for investors to invest their money in 2010. Keep in mind that technology companies typically do not carry much debt on their balance sheets, which allows them to purchase other companies when the opportunities arise. In addition, technology companies do a lot of business in foreign economies and couple that with the falling dollar and prices of U.S. products will be very attractive to overseas customers.

There are certainly discussions out there about quality tech opportunities as presented here. In addition, to some of those names I have other areas you might want to consider as you look to garner profits in the technology sector over the course of 2010.

Some of the stocks that are poised to have a very rosy 2010 include Apple Computer (AAPL), Baidu Incorporated (BIDU) and Amazon.com (AMZN). All these stocks have tremendous fundamentals and are in a great position to takeoff to the upside. Another way to participate is to buy the QQQQ exchange traded fund, which closely mirrors the NASDAQ. For more aggressive investors you could purchase the QLD exchange traded fund which move twice as fast the QQQs.

Trading Tips to Help Cash in on Hi-tech Profits

One way to lower costs when thinking about trading in the hi-tech area is to use options. You can use straight calls or spread them to even lower the costs further. There are also the possibilities of implementing covered calls or selling puts on the underlying to lower the overall cost basis. All of these option trading tips can go a long way in improving your total return on investment.

Did you like this? Share it:

The Oil Addiction

Friday, February 12th, 2010

During a recent segment of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money which aired on Feb 1st, he highlighted Natural Gas. Jim interviewed CEO of EQT Murray Gerber. EQT is a 120-year-old company based out of Pittsburgh, PA, that drills natural gas in the Appalachian basin. EQT trades on the NYSE and as of the close on Feb 11, 2010 its closing stock price was 42.01, which is down YTD approximately 5%.

Cramer stated that he felt natural gas was a great oil alternative and didn’t understand why it doesn’t get more attention in America’s efforts to reduce her dependence on foreign oil sources. Cramer went so far to say that “If you are not for natural gas, then you are for buying foreign oil,” and I would have to agree. According to many natural gas experts America has at least 125 years of supply. T. Boone Pickens is probably the most notable leader in this alternative/transition energy phase. He states that “America is the Saudi Arabia of natural gas.”

Clearly the United States has been addicted to oil for quite some time. It is a hard addiction to shake! You would think that the 70’s oil embargoes, the Iran crisis in the late 70’s, and exponential price increases in 2008 would motivate the country to check into oil detox programs immediately. But just like any junkie, we still continue to look for our oil fix.

Natural gas prices are approximately $5.35 per MMBTU (10,000 million British Thermal Units) versus oil’s $73 a barrel. It is cleaner and cheaper then oil, so you would think the natural order of supply and demand theory would easily introduce natural gas as a better substitute and increase its overall usage throughout the country’s entire energy mix. But since this natural order has been disturbed, could possible mean that some outside force has interrupted this process, perhaps a political one, supported by a strong lobbyist organization?

Did you like this? Share it:

Where to invest in 2010?

Monday, December 14th, 2009

The long-term economic outlook remains gloomy, but stocks should advance in 2010. Though 2009 had you on the edge of your seat, with the longest and steepest recession since World War II, gross domestic product eked out a modest growth of 3.5% in the third quarter. The stock market, which bottomed on March 9, 2009, soared 60% in the last seven months. For 2010, the growth will be anemic, with GDP predicted to be between two and three percent.

Investing in blue chip stocks is always a safe bet for any portfolio. Look for blue chip companies with strong foreign sales on their balance sheets, as well as those with a presence in China. Companies fitting this criterion include Apple Inc. (AAPL), Nike Inc. (NKE), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Monsanto Co. (MON).

Commodities such as oil and iron are traded globally and are priced in dollars. Demand from emerging markets, along with a weak dollar, will drive up prices, making this sector attractive in 2010. Natural resource producers will benefit significantly from these market trends. Players in this sector include Halliburton Company (HAL), Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) and National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NOV).

Many investors are understandably skittish about the health of the U.S. dollar and other major currencies. Gold is a great choice to balance out any portfolio. Companies such as Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM) are power plays. Not to be ignored, silver may outshine gold in 2010, as spot prices for the white metal rise due to a surge in industrial demand. Silver inventories will be replenished by the traditional industrial end users such as the electronics industry and that could take up to six months or more. Additionally, new market places for silver will be created, such as the demand for silver-zinc batteries used in “smart” automobiles. Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSRI) is one player in the mining of silver.

Lastly, health care is an enormous and growing domestic industry. The focus should be on companies that benefit significantly from cost reduction and expanded insurance coverage, as these will be players in 2010. These companies include Quest Diagnostics (DGX), which provides testing services and drug distributor, McKesson Corporation (MCK). If investing in the individual stocks isn’t what you are looking for, then consider mutual funds that invest in those stocks.

Did you like this? Share it:

The Twitter Effect

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Few would disparage the growing potential of online social media in 2010 and in the years to come. Yet many businesses have only a vague idea about how to harness this powerful tool for business purposes. This will change in 2010. In fact, it is already changing. Some businesses already advertise for people who know their way around online social networking sites, understanding instinctively that engaging “experts” in this burgeoning field will help them increase their client base.

These online communities have begun to alter the way companies trade, and social media has played an ever greater role in the past few years bringing people together for business. In 2010 we will see a melding of all manner of social media, as Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, YouTube, and others increasingly interact with each other. Google (NASDAQ: Goog) will move this integration forward, and Google Wave, their new concept of an integrated social tool combined with real time communication, will be the new big thing for 2010. Google already controls YouTube, and it is a safe bet that it will begin to invest in other social media sites that it can incorporate into its own social media platform.

Marketing

Whether for multi-national corporations, small businesses, or individuals, the social media phenomenon allows easy access to customers and a means whereby a producer can market its products and services quickly and with minimal expense. The growth of Twitter has shown how networks can be easily grown, offering information to ever-expanding networks of potential customers. By sharing links to websites, a person can easily find out more about products and services, and purchase them, without even leaving their desk.

As the use of social media marketing grows, we will see ever more clever advertising to engage and persuade potential customers to buy. Traditional advertisers will move more dollars online, and advertising on other forms of media will wane.

Media

As newspapers, magazines, television, radio, and other media merge with each other and go online, the lines between different types of media companies will blur. Time Warner’s (NYSE: TWX) CNN already offers news blogs, many written by citizen reporters. Citizen reporters will become increasingly important, and though many will lament the death of the professional journalist, there will still be a place for those professionals who can cross the lines between television, radio, print, and online media. Journalism will not die; it will morph into something new.

Movies, however, will not die in 2010. Neither television nor the development of video, or later DVDs, killed the movie theaters. Downloading of movies from the Internet may very well take business away from physical video stores, instead moving this business completely online.

Customer Service

Companies with social media presences will allow conversations to develop between themselves and their customers. Usually this will be a good thing, allowing consumers to help companies make products or develop services that become increasingly more consumer friendly. People will become attached to certain providers, depending on their preferences, and niches will develop that will provide a more directed outlet for customer service.

For example, a person with young children will go to those social media sites where they can meet others with young children, and makers of children’s products can offer sponsored advice on all aspects of raising children. In the same manner too gamers can go to sites where they can get hints for their favorite online games, and the makers for those games can offer support. In this respect, look at the lines between customer service and marketing to become increasingly more hazy.

Social media also levels the playing field between large corporations, smaller business entities, and individuals. If something goes wrong in a business relationship, consumers will increasingly use social media to get their complaints heard. State Farm is finding this out the hard way, as a widow who claims that she was unfairly treated by the company has set up a website and consistently tweets her story to thousands. Customer service becomes increasingly important when an unhappy customer can spread their bad experience around the globe in minutes.

Virtualization of Business

The way employees work will change dramatically in the coming year due to social media. Meetings and conventions will become fewer as companies seek to save money by having virtual meetings in virtual worlds. Microblogging will become a common way to communicate between employees, and cell phones will become increasingly more a part of this communication. Social networking will create groups of people working together on projects, and it will not matter whether they are in the next room or on the other side of the world. Blogs will become training manuals, and will be updated regularly. They will also be utilized as marketing tools, as they are now, though blogging specialists will develop to fashion tools to help employees become ever more productive.

Other Stuff

Social media has not limited its reach only to business. In 2008, President Obama showed how social media can drive a campaign. Look for the Republicans to take a page from this book and use it to their advantage in the 2010 Congressional elections next year. We also saw this year how Twitter helped protesters in Iran organize against a repressive regime. Look for this type of use of technology to increase and to make people around the world freer.

Non-profit organizations have also used social media to get out their message and to raise funds. This will increase, as will their presence online as they use their social networking sites to educate the public.

All of these social media trends and more will influence society, business and the markets in 2010 and beyond.

Did you like this? Share it: