Posts Tagged ‘stocks’

Mad Money Recap, March 29, 2010

Tuesday, March 30th, 2010

On “Mad Money” March 29, Jim Cramer talked about must-use techniques in purchasing stocks and managing your portfolio. He said actively investing in stocks, rather than having someone else manage your money or waiting for index funds to appreciate, is essential in the wake of the crash of 2008. He suggested spending five to 10 hours weekly managing your portfolio and doing the research. Mimicking the market’s returns rarely works. You have to put in the time by actively managing your portfolio and doing the research. You can beat the averages, but you have to exercise some patience and determination.

The “New Highs List”:

There are a few tools of the trade to pick stocks and manage your portfolio. Watching the “New Highs List” is one tool that never fails. The stocks on the “New Highs List” have something going for them, especially when the market is in bad shape. Either its part of a genuine bull market or it has some serious momentum. Many stocks on this list often keeps going higher and higher. There are some caveats to this however. It is still a good place to start. There is more continuity than change. Only when there are shifts, then you have to change course. Therefore you have to keep doing your homework. There have to be special circumstances. For example, on Monday’s “New Highs List” Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF), which is a mining and natural resources company that produces iron ore pellets, lump and fines iron ore, and metallurgical coal, surged $1.59 to close at $72.95, after setting a new 52 week-high of $73.95 before pulling back $1.00. This would be a stock to put on your watch-list.

Wait for something to pull back from the “new high list.” It gives you a good lower price entry in a stock. You must always be conscious of price. Purchase on weakness, sell on strength. You should purchase these stocks if you are confident of a comeback. Make sure they haven’t pulled back for a good reason and not just the market pulling back. If the fundamentals haven’t changed, it may have pulled back for mechanical reasons – profit-taking, etc. These reasons should have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company. If the opposite is true, the stock is no longer a candidate to be purchased.

Finding Great Buys:

You can get a better deal if you are patient and wait for some weakness. There are cases in which buying off the new high list is justified, especially, if the stock is so “hot” because it’s not going lower in the near future. If that is the case, which is a rarity, it would be wise not to buy all the shares at one time. For example, purchase 25 shares first. There is one exception. If your research uncovers insiders buying colossal amounts of stock when it’s at its 52 week high, then that is a great sign of their confidence in the business. The reality is that these insiders don’t think there will be a pull-back in the stock price. Still, you must do the homework and check the fundamentals about the company, including reading through the transcripts of the conference calls.

When a stock has a huge short position is also a great time to purchase shares in the company. There are a lot of people who have serious conviction that the stock is going down. The potential downside is infinite. If there are a lot of short-sellers, you get a short squeeze. In order to bail on their position, they have to buy more shares to cover their positions and close out their losses. This will cause the stock to surge. Similarly, when a company with a heavily shorted stock announces a buyback some of its shares, that is also a good sign. A substantial new buyback in the face of shorts is a good sign and worth a second look, however, you must proceed with caution. The balance of power has shifted in favor of the shorts and against you; therefore, you must avoid situations where the shorts are determined to crush the stock at any cost.

How to Trade Stocks:

Trading around a core position is paramount. Trading is about profiting from short term fluctuations in stock. Knowing how to trade makes you a better investor. First, pick a stock you believe will go higher over the long term, though it will get tossed around by market volatility. Buy in increments. For example, you want to buy 300 shares of Boeing. You should do so increments – 100 shares three times — over a period of time and that would be your core position. Every time the stock rises, you sell some shares to a shave off a profit. Wait until something knocks the stock down, you buy it back in increments. Over time your profits add up and that is what trading around a core position is. It is the height of prudent portfolio adjustment. There are rules to follow. Avoid putting yourself in a spot where you have too much or too little shares of the company.

Using options is the ultimate method of taking your trading to the next level. This will allow you to net small gains that will add up over time. When you have a stock with a lot of momentum, you need to know when to get out. The key to figure out when interest has piqued in a stock and it’s time to sell is by watching the Wall Street analyst coverage. Once hot stock has at least four analysts covering it, the means the run is almost over. It is a good gauge of how much interest and awareness there is in a particular stock. Hot stocks get tapped out when there is nobody left to be attracted to them. All the people interested in purchasing the stock have already done so. It is time to sell. It’s better to take your winnings than wait until the stock starts to cool off. Once too many people know about the stock, the stock will run out of steam and will never recover to the initial stock surge.

The steps given by Jim Cramer are common sense moves for any prudent investor. It takes time to understand and learn how to trade to effectively maximize your profits.

Janet Shan

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TheStreet.com – Headlines of Interest

Monday, February 15th, 2010

U.S. Department of Transportation Tentatively Approves American Airlines & British Airways Alliance

The Department of Transportation has tentatively approved American Airlines, British Airways and fellow Oneworld Alliance partners Iberia Airlines, Finnair and Royal Jordanian Airlines bid to expand their trans-Atlantic operations. According to thestreet.com, the proposed agreement would create a unified network of about 500 possible destinations in more than 100 countries. The carriers can jointly price, market and schedule international flights in their alliance without committing any antitrust violations that could lead to prosecution, provided that they agreed to cede to rival airlines four pairs of takeoff and landing slots at the United Kingdom’s Heathrow Airport.

American Airlines, a subsidiary of AMR Corp., British Airways and Iberia Airlines intend to create and operate a joint venture between the U.S., Mexico, Canada, the European Union, Switzerland and Norway. The obvious benefits of this alliance include lower fares on more routes for customers and better schedules. The alliance could have a negative effect on competition on some routes between the United States and Heathrow airport. The deal could also give the partners a dominant market position on routes between Heathrow and U.S. destinations like Dallas-Fort Worth, Boston and Miami. Alliances have become a viable alternative for air carriers who are struggling amid a downturn in air traffic. Many carriers are scrambling to reduce operating costs and are actively seeking new revenue streams.

There are similar trans-Atlantic partnerships in operation such as Lufthansa, Continental Airlines, United Air Lines and Air Canada of the Star Alliance and some members of the SkyTeam, Air France-KLM and Delta Air Lines. The Department of Transportation is allowing for a 60-day comment period before it makes its tentative approval decision final.

PetMed Express is a Good Defensive Addition to any Stock Portfolio

PetMed Express, on online pet-prescription retailer, has increased profit for 11 consecutive quarters and has been called a model of consistency. According to thestreet.com, during the last three years the company, based in Pompano Beach, Fla., has boosted revenue 15% annually. This is a good addition to the portfolio of any investor looking for a defensive play, especially in this economic climate.

PetMed is off to a good start in 2010, after it hit a speed bump last October following the release of fiscal second-quarter results. The stock has rallied eight percent in 2010, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 3.7% and as the S&P 500 fell 4.2%. PetMed’s fiscal third-quarter net income jumped 14% to $5.6 million and earnings per share climbed 19% to 25 cents. The company’s operating margin has held steady at 17%.

PetMed, which bills itself as America’s largest pet pharmacy, market capitalization is $442,300 million and its shares closed Friday at $19.35, with a P/E ratio of 17.26%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2.07%. With the spending on pet medicine expected to increase over time, PetMed is well positioned to participate in any increase in the pet medicine market as a whole, as well as gain market share. The company, despite the United States being in a recession, attracted 802,000 new customers in 2009 vs. 710,000 in 2008. It is also highly unlikely that pet owners, who use PetMed, will actively shop around for pet medicine. The company, which is a market leader with the lowest prices, offers its customers a quick and easy platform for repeat purchases.

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Cloudy Focus

Friday, February 12th, 2010

On Feb 5th, I saw Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money.” For the record I think Jim’s show is great (that’s right we are on a first name basis). It is rare to find a financial show that can educate and entertain on a consistent basis and Jim has clearly mastered this.

During this episode he talked about the current earnings season results and how many of the companies were blowing away the estimates. My sentiment is analysts have been watering down earnings estimates, since the economy is such a tough spot. This watered down effect makes it much easier for companies to surpass earnings estimates. In my opinion the majority of companies that are surpassing their earnings estimates are doing so because of deep costing cutting and productivity gains, and not so much from top line growth. But this is not the focus on this post.

What I was most shocked by during the show was Cramer’s statement, “Earnings this week will overshadow Europe and the unemployment figures….” My jaw dropped! Nothing could be further from the truth! Unemployment is a central theme in economics and politics at this critic juncture. The unemployment rate is at its highest since the early 1980s. We have roughly 10 million people unemployed. That is not a modest figure! The employment situation made the President do an about face and shift his focus from purely health care to JOBS and health care.

Across the Atlantic, the PIIGs (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Greece) debt situation has the entire world’s attention. Today the EU stated that they will aid Greece with their debt problems. Unfortunately, the details of this aide are sketchy at best and there was no mention of any assistance for any of the other debt-laden EU zone nations.

The employment and EU debt saga has totally eclipsed every aspect of the investment community. Sorry to say it, Jim was wrong about this one!

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Look for the Technology Sector to finish strong in 2010

Friday, February 12th, 2010

Hi-Tech stocks have a real good chance of being an extremely conducive place for investors to invest their money in 2010. Keep in mind that technology companies typically do not carry much debt on their balance sheets, which allows them to purchase other companies when the opportunities arise. In addition, technology companies do a lot of business in foreign economies and couple that with the falling dollar and prices of U.S. products will be very attractive to overseas customers.

There are certainly discussions out there about quality tech opportunities as presented here. In addition, to some of those names I have other areas you might want to consider as you look to garner profits in the technology sector over the course of 2010.

Some of the stocks that are poised to have a very rosy 2010 include Apple Computer (AAPL), Baidu Incorporated (BIDU) and Amazon.com (AMZN). All these stocks have tremendous fundamentals and are in a great position to takeoff to the upside. Another way to participate is to buy the QQQQ exchange traded fund, which closely mirrors the NASDAQ. For more aggressive investors you could purchase the QLD exchange traded fund which move twice as fast the QQQs.

Trading Tips to Help Cash in on Hi-tech Profits

One way to lower costs when thinking about trading in the hi-tech area is to use options. You can use straight calls or spread them to even lower the costs further. There are also the possibilities of implementing covered calls or selling puts on the underlying to lower the overall cost basis. All of these option trading tips can go a long way in improving your total return on investment.

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Where to invest in 2010?

Monday, December 14th, 2009

The long-term economic outlook remains gloomy, but stocks should advance in 2010. Though 2009 had you on the edge of your seat, with the longest and steepest recession since World War II, gross domestic product eked out a modest growth of 3.5% in the third quarter. The stock market, which bottomed on March 9, 2009, soared 60% in the last seven months. For 2010, the growth will be anemic, with GDP predicted to be between two and three percent.

Investing in blue chip stocks is always a safe bet for any portfolio. Look for blue chip companies with strong foreign sales on their balance sheets, as well as those with a presence in China. Companies fitting this criterion include Apple Inc. (AAPL), Nike Inc. (NKE), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Monsanto Co. (MON).

Commodities such as oil and iron are traded globally and are priced in dollars. Demand from emerging markets, along with a weak dollar, will drive up prices, making this sector attractive in 2010. Natural resource producers will benefit significantly from these market trends. Players in this sector include Halliburton Company (HAL), Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) and National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NOV).

Many investors are understandably skittish about the health of the U.S. dollar and other major currencies. Gold is a great choice to balance out any portfolio. Companies such as Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM) are power plays. Not to be ignored, silver may outshine gold in 2010, as spot prices for the white metal rise due to a surge in industrial demand. Silver inventories will be replenished by the traditional industrial end users such as the electronics industry and that could take up to six months or more. Additionally, new market places for silver will be created, such as the demand for silver-zinc batteries used in “smart” automobiles. Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSRI) is one player in the mining of silver.

Lastly, health care is an enormous and growing domestic industry. The focus should be on companies that benefit significantly from cost reduction and expanded insurance coverage, as these will be players in 2010. These companies include Quest Diagnostics (DGX), which provides testing services and drug distributor, McKesson Corporation (MCK). If investing in the individual stocks isn’t what you are looking for, then consider mutual funds that invest in those stocks.

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Moving Forward: Predictions for 2010

Monday, December 14th, 2009

After a grueling 2009, people around the world are looking to 2010 with hope, but hope seems to remain elusive. Though officially most of the world’s economies have begun to grow again, there is still a lot of economic pain in the foreseeable future.

The good news is that the US stock market is back up about 50%, though still 25% off its highs in 2007. The US stock market usually predicts how the US economy will fare 6-12 months in the future, so if this is any indication 2010 will mark a slow economic climb out of the pit. People can at least exhale and take comfort in the fact that at least the economy has stopped shrinking.

Unemployment will slow the recovery, as it hampers consumer spending, and the excess housing and manufactured goods will contain inflation and wages. Credit is still hard to come by, which will hit small businesses the hardest, another indicator that the economic recovery will remain lackluster into 2010. Taking into account people working part time who would rather be working full time and people who have given up looking all together, the true unemployment rate is closer to 18%. So it will be a long, slow climb through next year with fits of growth and plenty of setbacks.

Still, there is good news. IT companies are likely to do well, as businesses seek to utilize software to make the employees they retained more productive. Online enterprises will allow some of those who were let go to start new businesses for next to nothing, and this is the real wave of the future. The Internet will drive the recovery in 2010.

Some people are still talking about the possibility of a double dip recession, with the economy shrinking again in 2010, albeit more slowly. This is a possibility, especially if the economic supports put in place by governments to keep the economy from falling apart are scrapped too soon. If governments (aka taxpayers) are able to continue to support the world’s economies, we will escape this.

As for investing, commodities are likely to be strong, especially gold and silver. First Solar (FSLR) looks to be a good investment for 2010, though its prospects look hazier into 2011 due to competition from China and lack of incentives for consumers. With continuing international pressure to green the US economy, this may change next year. Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS) looks like a good bet too, as it posted better than expected profits for the third quarter and announced projections for 20% growth in the next year. The maker of generic drugs has secured $4 billion in new business for 2010 and has retained 99% of its clientele, making it look very promising next year. Genpact (NYSE: G), an offshoot of General Electric (NYSE: GE), may be a bit riskier, as it is still sucking from GE’s tit for nearly half of its 2008 revenues. Still, Genpact offers IT solutions that enable businesses to keep costs low.

Two stocks to stay away from in the coming year are the New York Times (NYSE: NYT) and Garmin Limited (Nasdaq: GRMN). They are both moving towards obsolescence.

The New York Times and other newspapers are being supplanted by online news organizations. Since its stock price bottomed on March 9, 2009, it has skyrocketed 131%. As advertising is down, costs can be cut no further, and print media in general suffers from an identity crisis, look for the New York Times’ stock price to flounder next year. Though eventually their online business may save the organization, it does not make up a significant part of it yet for the newspaper to turn a profit.

Garmin Unlimited, the leading makers of GPS systems in automobiles in the US, rose 79% from March 9. This only means it has that much further to fall. With the auto market showing no signs of picking up, its sales are set to be flat in the New Year. With cell phones and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) offering GPS services for free, there seems little hope that Garmin will survive past the end of 2010.

All in all, prospects for a prosperous 2010 look better than 2009, but looking back on the year that was, it really does not mean very much…

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Renewable Energy Set to Take Off in 2010

Monday, December 14th, 2009

With the cap-and-trade debate raging, the opportunity exists for energy companies to create their own sector-specific carbon trading platform as a way to mitigate the attempts by legislators and policymakers to create legislation in 2010. A cap and trade system is a method for managing pollution, with the end goal of reducing overall pollution in a nation, region or industry. For 2010, renewable energy production is expected to intensify in the Middle East and North Africa, two places known for fossil fuels.

The geographic and demographic conditions in both areas are ideal for a new type of renewable leadership. Africa and the Middle East have climates conducive to renewable energy production — hot temperature with significant sea breezes during the day and a close proximity to the developed population centers of Europe.

The Cleantech Index (AMEX: CTIUS) and Next Generation Energy Index (NYSE: NGX) are two ways investors can capitalize on this growing sector.

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Oil and Gas Companies are Worth a Look in 2010

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Oil and gas companies, such as Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Noble Energy Inc. (NBL), Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB), Murphy Oil Corporation, (MUR) and ConocoPhillips (COP) will face tough issues in 2010 as the recession continues to impact cash flow. Merger and acquisition activities will begin to rebound in 2010 as many of the struggling companies become targets for takeover. The oil and gas majors will hold on to their cash and maintain their capital expenditures during the market downturn.

Exxon Mobil announced Monday that it will purchase XTO Energy (XTO) in an all-stock deal worth $31 billion. This deal could signal a new rush to own natural gas assets by major integrated producers.

According to Deloitte, nationalism is expected to occur in areas such as Russia, Venezuela, Russia, Africa and the Middle East as Western oil companies will be informed that they must hire from the local population than hiring the best candidate available for the job.

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The Twitter Effect

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Few would disparage the growing potential of online social media in 2010 and in the years to come. Yet many businesses have only a vague idea about how to harness this powerful tool for business purposes. This will change in 2010. In fact, it is already changing. Some businesses already advertise for people who know their way around online social networking sites, understanding instinctively that engaging “experts” in this burgeoning field will help them increase their client base.

These online communities have begun to alter the way companies trade, and social media has played an ever greater role in the past few years bringing people together for business. In 2010 we will see a melding of all manner of social media, as Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, YouTube, and others increasingly interact with each other. Google (NASDAQ: Goog) will move this integration forward, and Google Wave, their new concept of an integrated social tool combined with real time communication, will be the new big thing for 2010. Google already controls YouTube, and it is a safe bet that it will begin to invest in other social media sites that it can incorporate into its own social media platform.

Marketing

Whether for multi-national corporations, small businesses, or individuals, the social media phenomenon allows easy access to customers and a means whereby a producer can market its products and services quickly and with minimal expense. The growth of Twitter has shown how networks can be easily grown, offering information to ever-expanding networks of potential customers. By sharing links to websites, a person can easily find out more about products and services, and purchase them, without even leaving their desk.

As the use of social media marketing grows, we will see ever more clever advertising to engage and persuade potential customers to buy. Traditional advertisers will move more dollars online, and advertising on other forms of media will wane.

Media

As newspapers, magazines, television, radio, and other media merge with each other and go online, the lines between different types of media companies will blur. Time Warner’s (NYSE: TWX) CNN already offers news blogs, many written by citizen reporters. Citizen reporters will become increasingly important, and though many will lament the death of the professional journalist, there will still be a place for those professionals who can cross the lines between television, radio, print, and online media. Journalism will not die; it will morph into something new.

Movies, however, will not die in 2010. Neither television nor the development of video, or later DVDs, killed the movie theaters. Downloading of movies from the Internet may very well take business away from physical video stores, instead moving this business completely online.

Customer Service

Companies with social media presences will allow conversations to develop between themselves and their customers. Usually this will be a good thing, allowing consumers to help companies make products or develop services that become increasingly more consumer friendly. People will become attached to certain providers, depending on their preferences, and niches will develop that will provide a more directed outlet for customer service.

For example, a person with young children will go to those social media sites where they can meet others with young children, and makers of children’s products can offer sponsored advice on all aspects of raising children. In the same manner too gamers can go to sites where they can get hints for their favorite online games, and the makers for those games can offer support. In this respect, look at the lines between customer service and marketing to become increasingly more hazy.

Social media also levels the playing field between large corporations, smaller business entities, and individuals. If something goes wrong in a business relationship, consumers will increasingly use social media to get their complaints heard. State Farm is finding this out the hard way, as a widow who claims that she was unfairly treated by the company has set up a website and consistently tweets her story to thousands. Customer service becomes increasingly important when an unhappy customer can spread their bad experience around the globe in minutes.

Virtualization of Business

The way employees work will change dramatically in the coming year due to social media. Meetings and conventions will become fewer as companies seek to save money by having virtual meetings in virtual worlds. Microblogging will become a common way to communicate between employees, and cell phones will become increasingly more a part of this communication. Social networking will create groups of people working together on projects, and it will not matter whether they are in the next room or on the other side of the world. Blogs will become training manuals, and will be updated regularly. They will also be utilized as marketing tools, as they are now, though blogging specialists will develop to fashion tools to help employees become ever more productive.

Other Stuff

Social media has not limited its reach only to business. In 2008, President Obama showed how social media can drive a campaign. Look for the Republicans to take a page from this book and use it to their advantage in the 2010 Congressional elections next year. We also saw this year how Twitter helped protesters in Iran organize against a repressive regime. Look for this type of use of technology to increase and to make people around the world freer.

Non-profit organizations have also used social media to get out their message and to raise funds. This will increase, as will their presence online as they use their social networking sites to educate the public.

All of these social media trends and more will influence society, business and the markets in 2010 and beyond.

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Look for the gold market to regain its momentum in 2010

Sunday, December 13th, 2009

Despite the recent retracement in the gold market there still is much more upside based on a very robust fundamental outlook. Consider: According to Bernanke’s latest comments the Federal Reserve does not plan on raising interest rates anytime soon, and huge deficits will be here for a while. This certainly leads to a continued bullish scenario for gold. In addition, you have countries like China, Russia and India increasing their gold purchasing plans for 2010.

Given this outlook there are a handful of fundamentally superior stocks within the gold sector that are poised to do quite well when gold takes off again. These include: GoldCorp (GG), Freeport-McMoran Gold & Copper (FCX), Gulf Resources (GFRE), and IAMGOLD Corp (IAG). All these stocks have great sales growth and positive cash flow but one that really stands out as a great buy is GoldCorp (GG).

GoldCorp is one of the largest precious-metal mining companies in the world, operating mainly in Canada and South America. The company produces more than 2.3 million ounces of gold annually and has about 45 million ounces in proved and probable reserves. What makes this company such a good buy is its tremendous operating margins. It costs GoldCorp $310 per ounce to mine gold, which is the lowest of all its competitors. As the uptrend in gold prices starts to resume again these low production costs spells huge profit growth for the company going forward (as well as a nice surge in the stock price).

Another way to invest in this secular uptrend is to invest in the exchange traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). The GLD price is in an uptrend and this uptrend is being confirmed by the up sloping On balance Volume (OBV) indicator. The up trending OBV indicator shows that volume is increasing on price up days and is decreasing on down days, which bolsters the technical case for the price uptrend to continue.

Combining this attractive technical profile with the solid fundamental picture for the gold sector renders this particular ETF a compelling buy and certainly is an effective way to capture profits from the continued uptrend with far less volatility.

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